What is an exit poll, how is it different from an opinion poll, how accurate is it?

After the assembly election polls in Telangana end on November 30 evening, all the TV channels will start claiming the exit poll results of the recent 05 assembly elections. These assembly elections are being held in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. Voting started in November in different phases. Now it has reached its end. The official results will be announced after the counting of votes for this election on December 3.

Do you know when the Election Commission of India allows exit polls to be shown? Because it’s actually a rule. No TV channel can violate it. After receiving this green signal from the Election Commission, they started talking about the exit poll results. Before this, he only talked about elections in general.

Exit polls are actually attempts to draw conclusions through trends. Talking to people predicts where the results might go. Through this it is estimated which political party is winning and who will lag behind. But their authenticity has always been doubted.

What are the rules of the Election Commission about exit polls?
The Election Commission has made a rule that exit polls cannot predict the outcome before the last phase of voting. After the last round of voting, when the Election Commission officially announces the total number of votes in the final round in the evening, TV channels and some news sites will start reporting the results of their own or through exit polls. organizations

Since the accuracy of exit polls is always questioned, it is natural to question what these exit polls are and how accurate their predictions about election results are.

What are exit polls and how are they conducted?
– Exit polls are based on conversations with people coming out of polling booths or their tendencies after voting. These are used to predict which way the results are leaning. It speaks extensively to voters. Nowadays many organizations are working on managing it.

Why are exit polls allowed only after the polls are over? Why not before?
– Under Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act 1951, nothing should be done during voting which affects the psychology of voters or influences their decision to vote. Exit polls cannot be broadcast until one and a half hours after the end of voting. And it can only happen when the last round of voting for all the elections is over.

Are exit polls always right?
– No, not at all like that. Predictions made by exit polls have been proven wrong in the past. The history of exit polls in India has not been very accurate. Many times the exit poll results have been completely opposite.

Generally, exit polls are predicted based on the public’s tendency to vote.

What is the difference between opinion polls and exit polls?
– Opinion polls are conducted long before voting to know voter behavior and what they might do. This shows which way the voters are planning to go this time. Whereas exit polls are always after polls.

What are opinion polls?
Public opinion polls mean general public opinion. A variety of scientific methods are used to understand or measure public opinion.

Random sampling is always used in electoral surveys. The country’s largest survey agency Lokniti – CSDSO also conducts random sampling. In this, random sampling is done at seat level, booth level and voter level. Suppose there are 1000 voters in a booth. Out of this 50 people will be interviewed. So these 50 people will be randomly included.

So for this, dividing 1000 by 50 gives the answer of 20. After that, a number less than 20 will be drawn from the voter list on a random basis. For example, let’s say you took 12. So voter number 12 in voter list is your first respondent.

Whom to interview, then add 20, 20, 20 to that 12 number and whatever number comes up, keep interviewing that number’s voter.

There are three branches of opinion polls. Pre Poll, Exit Poll and Post Poll. Generally people consider exit poll and post poll to be same but these two are quite different from each other.

What is pre-poll?
Surveys conducted after the announcement of elections and before the polling date are called pre-polls. For example, suppose the Lok Sabha elections are from 11th April and the election was announced on 10th March. So in such a situation the survey conducted after March 10 and before April 11 will be called pre-poll.

When did they start?
It is believed that they came into existence in 1967. Marcel van Den, a Dutch sociologist and former politician, conducted exit polls during elections in the country. But it is also being said that this is the first time in America that this has been done during the election of a state. However, hypothetical things like exit polls are said to have happened in 1940.

Why are they being opposed?
Because usually they are not very scientific or prepared based on talking to many people. That is why they are usually far from reality. Many countries have demanded to ban them. It was banned by the Election Commission in India’s 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Now most of the people in the world do not find them reliable.